MARKETS AND FINANCE TURNING OIL TANKERS AND JUMBO JETS International bunkers Baseline Technological & operational improvements Constant share of global CO2 emissions (RCP 4.5) Constant share of global CO2 emissions (RCP 2.6) EU target path (min) EU target path (max) Industry proposal Carbon neutral growth 2020 Budget approach 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Source: Study authors’ own calculations based on IEA 2014, ICAO 2013b, IMO 2009, IMO 2014, van Vuuren, D. P. et al. 2011, Thomson et al. 2010, IATA 2013, IPCC 2014, ICAO 2010, ICS 2015. Bioenergy Int BBiiooeenneerrggyy IInntteerrnnaattiioonnaall NNoo 8833,, 77--22001155 3333 COMMISSIONED BY THE EUROPEAN Parliament’s Committee on Environment, Public Health and Food Safety (ENVI) and published in November in the lead up to the climate talks in Paris, France, the study “Emission Reduction Targets for International Aviation and Shipping” finds that, if left unregulated, maritime transport and aviation could be responsible for around 17 percent and 22 percent respectively of global CO2 emissions by 2050. According to the study, both sectors together accounted for about 3 to 4 percent of global emissions 2012 depending on whether global greenhouse gas (GHG) or only CO2 emissions are considered. Own actions insufficient Initiatives and actions taken by the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) and the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), both United Nations (UN) agencies that regulate these sectors and tasked by the Kyoto Protocol to address GHG emissions, started late and have been “insufficient from an environmental perspective.” The study agrees that the measures proposed by IMO and ICAO thus far will mitigate growth of the sectoral CO2 emissions but that in the long run these will not lead to absolute emission reductions. This is due to the historic and projected strong growth for international transportation. CO2 emissions of international aviation and maritime transport were and are constantly growing despite considerable efficiency improvements. The study warns that if, as in the past, the ambition of these sectors continues to fall behind efforts in other sectors and if action to combat 6 000 5 000 4 000 Mt CO2 3 000 2 000 1 000 0 climate change is further postponed, their collective share in global CO2 emissions may rise substantially to almost 40 percent. Staying within 2°C Based on several criteria, potential mitigation targets for the aviation and shipping sectors were developed and presented in the study. They range from a somewhat reduced increase of future emissions over stabilisation at 2020 levels to a full decarbonisation of those sectors by 2050. While acknowledging that full decarbonisation within only 30 years is rather unrealistic, the study shows that stabilising emissions at 2020 levels (carbon neutral growth) is clearly not enough. To stay below 2°C, the target for aviation for 2030 should not exceed 39 percent of its 2005 emission levels (50 percent below the baseline) and should be -41 percent compared to its 2005 emission levels in 2050. The respective targets for shipping are -13 percent and -63 percent compared to its 2005 emissions in 2030 and 2050, respectively. If non-CO2 impacts are taken into account, these targets would need to be even more stringent. Taking into account the estimated mitigation potential within the sectors, it is unlikely that targets which are compatible with the below 2°C objective can be achieved only with technological and operational improvements within the sectors. Thus, these potential targets indicate the extent to which both sectors could contribute adequately to global GHG mitigation efforts. Achieving these targets may require both encouraging behavioural change, which leads to reduced demand for international transport services and enabling the offsetting of climate impacts by financing emission reductions in other sectors. Moreover, it needs to be taken into account that particularly the non-CO2 climate impacts of aviation will not be reduced if fossil fuels are replaced by hydrocarbons extracted from renewable energies. Only electrical propulsion, demand reduction or offsetting remaining emission will enable full decarbonisation of the aviation sector. Text: Alan Sherrard BI83/5125/AS Editor’s note: The report can be found on http://www.europarl. A recently published scientific study has concluded that, if left unchecked, maritime transport and aviation collectively could account for almost 40 percent of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2050. Setting reduction targets for both sectors would provide clear signals for all and contribute to improving investment perspectives. Figure 11: Potential CO2 emission targets for international aviation and maritime transport Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), is a set of global GHG emission trajectories used in the climate models. The global carbon budget approach is an alternative to emission pathways: it determines the total aggregated emissions since pre-industrial times without using a specific target path. Constant share (blue lines): the assumption is that the share of global GHG emissions from international aviation and maritime transport projected for 2020 is kept constant in the future. EU target path (green lines): the assumption that international aviation and maritime transport could be considered as additional countries and that they resemble an industrialised rather than a developing country. Budget approach (yellow line): Taking up the concept of a remaining global carbon budget together with international aviation and maritime transport’s 2020 share in global GHG emissions. Carbon neutral growth (dashed grey line): ICAO has agreed to keep its CO2 emissions constant from 2020 on. Industry proposals (continuous grey line): IATA suggested starting with carbon neutral growth from 2020 onwards and reducing international aviation’s emissions by 50 percent by 2050 compared to 2005.
Bioenergy International no 7 December 2015
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